Political Science 101 POLS: International Relations - Foreign Policy Analysis DecisionMaking Models Rational Actor Organizational Process Bureaucratic Politics Allison Role of Leaders Public Opinion Media

1. What This Is & Why It Matters

Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) is the study of how governments make decisions about international relations. It's central to political science because understanding FPA helps us explain why some countries engage in wars, why others form alliances, and why some leaders are more effective than others in achieving their foreign policy goals. Without grasping FPA, you can't explain why the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, why the Soviet Union collapsed, or why China is increasingly assertive in the South China Sea.

Consider this example: In 2018, President Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. This decision was widely criticized by European allies and experts, who argued that it would lead to a nuclear-armed Iran. However, Trump's decision was also seen as a key part of his "America First" foreign policy, which prioritizes American interests over international cooperation. To understand this decision, you need to apply FPA concepts, such as the role of leaders, public opinion, and media, to the complex web of domestic and international factors that influenced Trump's decision.

2. Essential Thinkers, Concepts & Models

• Rational Actor Model: Assumes that states make decisions based on a rational calculation of costs and benefits. This model is still relevant because it underpins many international relations theories, such as realism and liberalism.
• Organizational Process Model: Suggests that foreign policy decisions are shaped by the internal dynamics of government bureaucracies. This model is still relevant because it helps explain why some foreign policy initiatives succeed while others fail.
• Bureaucratic Politics Model (Allison): Argues that foreign policy decisions are the result of a struggle for power and influence within government bureaucracies. This model is still relevant because it helps explain why some foreign policy decisions are made despite opposition from key stakeholders.
• Role of Leaders: Leaders play a crucial role in shaping foreign policy decisions, often through their personal relationships and charisma. This concept is still relevant because it helps explain why some leaders are more effective than others in achieving their foreign policy goals.
• Public Opinion: Public opinion can influence foreign policy decisions, particularly in democracies. This concept is still relevant because it helps explain why some foreign policy initiatives are popular while others are not.
• Media: The media can shape public opinion and influence foreign policy decisions, particularly through their coverage of international events. This concept is still relevant because it helps explain why some foreign policy decisions are made in response to media pressure.
• Game Theory: Game theory is a mathematical approach to understanding international relations, which assumes that states make decisions based on a rational calculation of costs and benefits. This concept is still relevant because it helps explain why some international relations theories, such as deterrence, work.
• Neorealism: Neorealism is a theory of international relations that assumes that states are primarily motivated by a desire for security and power. This concept is still relevant because it helps explain why some countries engage in wars and form alliances.
• Liberalism: Liberalism is a theory of international relations that assumes that states are primarily motivated by a desire for economic cooperation and peace. This concept is still relevant because it helps explain why some countries engage in international trade and form alliances.

3. Step-by-Step 'Political Analysis'

1. Identify the key stakeholders: Who are the key players involved in the foreign policy decision-making process? This might include the president, Congress, the State Department, the Pentagon, and other government agencies.
2. Analyze the domestic context: What are the domestic factors that influence the foreign policy decision-making process? This might include public opinion, media coverage, and the interests of key stakeholders.
3. Examine the international context: What are the international factors that influence the foreign policy decision-making process? This might include the actions of other countries, international organizations, and global trends.
4. Apply a decision-making model: Which decision-making model best explains the foreign policy decision-making process? This might include the rational actor model, the organizational process model, or the bureaucratic politics model.
5. Evaluate the effectiveness of the decision: How effective was the foreign policy decision in achieving its goals? This might involve evaluating the decision's impact on the country's security, economy, and reputation.

4. Common Student Mistakes

• Misconception: The rational actor model assumes that states make decisions based on a rational calculation of costs and benefits.
• The right view: While the rational actor model is a useful starting point, it oversimplifies the complexity of foreign policy decision-making. In reality, foreign policy decisions are often shaped by a range of domestic and international factors, including public opinion, media coverage, and the interests of key stakeholders.
• Misconception: The bureaucratic politics model suggests that foreign policy decisions are made through a struggle for power and influence within government bureaucracies.
• The right view: While the bureaucratic politics model is a useful way to understand the internal dynamics of government bureaucracies, it often overlooks the role of external factors, such as public opinion and international pressure, in shaping foreign policy decisions.
• Misconception: Game theory is a mathematical approach to understanding international relations that assumes that states make decisions based on a rational calculation of costs and benefits.
• The right view: While game theory is a useful tool for understanding international relations, it often oversimplifies the complexity of foreign policy decision-making. In reality, foreign policy decisions are often shaped by a range of domestic and international factors, including public opinion, media coverage, and the interests of key stakeholders.

5. Exam/Essay Tips

• Multiple-choice questions: When answering multiple-choice questions, be sure to read the question carefully and choose the answer that best reflects your understanding of the topic.
• Free-response questions: When answering free-response questions, be sure to provide a clear and concise answer that addresses all parts of the question.
• Trap distinctions: Be careful to distinguish between different concepts and theories, such as pluralism vs. elitism, dual federalism vs. cooperative federalism, and realism vs. liberalism.
• Integrating the topic into an argumentative essay: When writing an argumentative essay, be sure to integrate the topic of foreign policy analysis into your argument. This might involve using FPA concepts to explain why a particular foreign policy decision was made, or how FPA can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of a foreign policy decision.

6. Quick Practice Scenario

Scenario: A president deploys troops without Congressional approval – which constitutional principle is at stake?

Answer: The president's decision violates the War Powers Resolution, which requires the president to obtain Congressional approval for military action.

Justification: The War Powers Resolution is a constitutional principle that requires the president to obtain Congressional approval for military action, except in cases of national emergency. In this scenario, the president's decision to deploy troops without Congressional approval violates this principle.

7. Last-Minute Cram Sheet

• Rational Actor Model: Assumes that states make decisions based on a rational calculation of costs and benefits.
• Organizational Process Model: Suggests that foreign policy decisions are shaped by the internal dynamics of government bureaucracies.
• Bureaucratic Politics Model (Allison): Argues that foreign policy decisions are the result of a struggle for power and influence within government bureaucracies.
• Role of Leaders: Leaders play a crucial role in shaping foreign policy decisions, often through their personal relationships and charisma.
• Public Opinion: Public opinion can influence foreign policy decisions, particularly in democracies.
• Media: The media can shape public opinion and influence foreign policy decisions, particularly through their coverage of international events.
• Game Theory: Game theory is a mathematical approach to understanding international relations, which assumes that states make decisions based on a rational calculation of costs and benefits.
• Neorealism: Neorealism is a theory of international relations that assumes that states are primarily motivated by a desire for security and power.
• Liberalism: Liberalism is a theory of international relations that assumes that states are primarily motivated by a desire for economic cooperation and peace.
• War Powers Resolution: Requires the president to obtain Congressional approval for military action, except in cases of national emergency.

Separate but equal was overturned by Brown v. Board – Plessy v. Ferguson was the earlier, racist ruling.

8. Further Study Resources

• American Government: Stories of a Nation by David M. Kennedy, Lizabeth Cohen, and Thomas A. Bailey
• Khan Academy units on foreign policy and international relations
• Crash Course Government YouTube channel
• International Relations Theory by Steve Smith, Amelia Hadfield, and Tim Dunne