AP US Government & Politics: Voter Turnout and Models of Voting Behavior (Rational-Choice, Retrospective, Prospective)

AP US Government & Politics – Voter Turnout and Models of Voting Behavior (Rational?Choice, Retrospective, Prospective)

AP US Government & Politics: Voter Turnout and Models of Voting Behavior

Study Guide for the AP Exam

What This Is

This topic explains why people vote (or don’t) and how they decide whom to vote for. On the AP exam, you’ll need to analyze voter behavior using three key models (rational-choice, retrospective, prospective) and explain why turnout varies by election, demographic, and structural factors. Real-world example: In the 2020 presidential election, turnout hit a 120-year high (66.8%)—but why? Some voters were motivated by retrospective voting (judging Trump’s past performance), while others used prospective voting (hoping Biden would handle COVID-19 better). Meanwhile, rational-choice theory explains why some eligible voters stayed home: the "cost" of voting (time, effort) outweighed the perceived "benefit" (their single vote making a difference).

Key Terms & Concepts

• Voter Turnout: The percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. Calculated as: Turnout = (Number of Voters / Voting-Eligible Population) × 100

• Example: In 2016, turnout was 55.7% (137 million voters / 245 million eligible).

• Voting-Eligible Population (VEP): Citizens 18+, not disenfranchised (e.g., felons in some states), and legally permitted to vote.

• Not the same as voting-age population (VAP), which includes ineligible groups (non-citizens, felons).

• Structural Barriers to Voting: Laws or systems that make voting harder, lowering turnout.

• Examples: Voter ID laws, limited polling places, felon disenfranchisement, lack of early voting.

• Historical example: Jim Crow laws (poll taxes, literacy tests) suppressed Black voter turnout until the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

• Socioeconomic Status (SES) & Turnout: Higher income, education, and age correlate with higher turnout.

• Why? More resources (time, money) to overcome barriers; stronger political efficacy (belief that voting matters).

• Political Efficacy: A voter’s belief that their participation can influence government.

• Internal efficacy: "I understand politics and can participate."

• External efficacy: "The government will respond to my vote."

• Rational-Choice Voting: Voters act like consumers, weighing costs vs. benefits of voting.

• Key formula: Vote if: (P × B) – C + D > 0
  • P = Probability your vote changes the outcome (almost always near zero).
  • B = Benefit of your preferred candidate winning.
  • C = Costs of voting (time, effort, missing work).
  • D = "Duty" or civic benefit (feeling good about voting).

• Example: A busy single mom may skip voting (high C, low D), while a retiree with strong party loyalty votes (low C, high D).

• Retrospective Voting: Voters judge candidates based on past performance (e.g., "Are things better or worse than 4 years ago?").

• Example: In 1980, voters ousted Jimmy Carter due to stagflation and the Iran hostage crisis (retrospective judgment).

• Key question: "What have you done for me lately?"

• Prospective Voting: Voters choose candidates based on future promises (e.g., "Who will handle the economy better?").

• Example: In 2008, Obama’s campaign focused on "Hope and Change" (prospective appeal).

• Key question: "Who will do the best job going forward?"

• Party-Line Voting: Voters pick candidates solely based on party affiliation, ignoring policy or performance.

• Example: In 2020, 94% of Democrats voted for Biden, 92% of Republicans for Trump (Pew Research).

• Why? Strong party identification simplifies decisions (lowers C in rational-choice model).

• Demographic Factors in Turnout:

• Age: Older voters (65+) turn out ~20% more than 18–29-year-olds.
• Race/Ethnicity: White and Black voters historically turn out more than Hispanic and Asian voters (though gaps are narrowing).

• Gender: Women vote ~3–4% more than men (since 1980).

• Midterm vs. Presidential Elections:

• Presidential elections: Higher turnout (~60%).
• Midterms: Lower turnout (~40–50%), often older, whiter, wealthier voters.
• Example: In 2018, midterm turnout surged to 49.4% (highest in 100 years) due to anti-Trump backlash.

Step-by-Step: How to Analyze Voter Turnout & Voting Models on the AP Exam

1. Identify the Election Context
2. Is it a presidential, midterm, or local election? (Turnout varies!)
3. What structural barriers exist? (Voter ID laws? Early voting?)

4. What demographics are involved? (Young vs. old? Urban vs. rural?)

5. Apply the Models of Voting Behavior

6. Rational-Choice: Ask: What are the costs/benefits for this voter?
   • Example: A college student with a busy job may skip voting (high C, low D).
7. Retrospective: Ask: How do voters feel about the incumbent’s performance?
   • Example: In 1992, Bush lost due to a recession (retrospective judgment).

8. Prospective: Ask: What promises is the candidate making?

   • Example: In 2016, Trump’s "Make America Great Again" appealed to voters worried about jobs.

9. Compare Turnout Across Groups

10. Use demographic data (age, race, income) to explain differences.

11. Example: In 2020, Black turnout dropped slightly (from 2012) due to voter suppression efforts (e.g., Georgia’s exact-match law).

12. Link to Broader Themes

13. How does this relate to political participation, elections, or policy outcomes?

14. Example: Low youth turnout-policies favor older voters (e.g., Social Security over student debt relief).

15. Evaluate Solutions to Low Turnout

16. Increase turnout: Automatic voter registration, mail-in voting, Election Day as a holiday.
17. Decrease turnout: Voter ID laws, felon disenfranchisement, gerrymandering.

Common Mistakes

• Mistake: Confusing voting-age population (VAP) with voting-eligible population (VEP).

• Correction: VAP includes non-citizens and felons (who can’t vote), while VEP is the actual pool of eligible voters. Always use VEP for turnout calculations.

• Mistake: Assuming all voters use the same model (e.g., "Everyone votes retrospectively").

• Correction: Different voters use different models—some are party-line, others prospective. Look for clues in the question (e.g., "Voters angry about inflation"-retrospective).

• Mistake: Ignoring structural barriers when explaining turnout.

• Correction: Always consider laws, registration rules, and polling access. Example: Georgia’s 2021 voting law (SB 202) made it harder to vote by mail, suppressing turnout.

• Mistake: Overlooking demographic trends (e.g., "Young people always vote less").

• Correction: Turnout varies by election type and issues. Example: In 2018, youth turnout doubled due to gun control activism (March for Our Lives).

• Mistake: Misapplying rational-choice theory (e.g., "No one should vote because P is always zero").

• Correction: While P (probability of impact) is tiny, D (duty) and B (benefit) still motivate voters. Example: A die-hard Democrat in a swing state may vote because B (beating Trump) is high.

AP Exam Insights

1. Multiple-Choice Traps:
2. Distinguishing models: A question might ask, "A voter chooses a candidate because of their plan to lower taxes."-Prospective voting (not retrospective).
3. Turnout calculations: Watch for VAP vs. VEP—AP loves testing this!

4. Demographic shifts: Questions may ask why Black turnout dropped in 2020 (answer: voter suppression, not lack of interest).

5. FRQ Hot Topics:

6. Compare/contrast voting models (e.g., "Explain how retrospective and prospective voting influenced the 2020 election").
7. Analyze turnout data (e.g., "Using the chart, explain why youth turnout was lower in 2016 than 2020").

8. Evaluate structural barriers (e.g., "How do voter ID laws affect turnout among minority groups?").

9. Tricky Distinctions:

10. Party-line vs. retrospective/prospective: Party-line voters ignore performance, while retrospective/prospective voters judge candidates.

11. Midterm vs. presidential turnout: Midterms have lower, older, whiter electorates—policies reflect this!

12. Document-Based Questions (DBQ):

13. You might get voter turnout graphs or quotes from campaigns (e.g., "Read this 2020 Biden ad—does it appeal to retrospective or prospective voters?").

Quick Check Questions

Multiple-Choice

1. Which of the following best illustrates retrospective voting? a) A voter chooses a candidate because of their promise to expand healthcare. b) A voter re-elects an incumbent because the economy improved under their leadership. c) A voter picks a candidate solely because they share the same party affiliation. d) A voter skips the election because they don’t think their vote will matter.

Answer: B – Retrospective voting judges past performance (e.g., economic growth).

1. In the rational-choice voting model, what does D represent? a) The probability that a voter’s ballot will decide the election. b) The personal benefit a voter gains if their candidate wins. c) The civic duty or satisfaction a voter feels from participating. d) The cost of voting, such as time off work.

Answer: C – D stands for "duty," the non-material benefit of voting.

Short FRQ

1. In 2018, midterm voter turnout reached a 100-year high (49.4%).
2. a) Identify one demographic group that saw increased turnout in 2018 and explain one reason for this increase.
3. b) Using one model of voting behavior, explain why overall turnout was higher in 2018 than in 2014.

Sample Answer: - a) Young voters (18–29) saw increased turnout due to activism on gun control (March for Our Lives) and opposition to Trump. - b) Retrospective voting: Many voters were motivated by anger at Trump’s policies (e.g., family separation at the border) and wanted to punish Republicans in Congress.

Last-Minute Cram Sheet

1. Voter turnout formula: (Voters / VEP) × 100 Not VAP!
2. Rational-choice formula: Vote if (P × B) – C + D > 0
3. Retrospective voting: "What have you done for me lately?" (Past performance)
4. Prospective voting: "Who will do the best job?" (Future promises)
5. Party-line voting: Voting only based on party, ignoring policy.
6. Structural barriers: Voter ID laws, felon disenfranchisement, limited polling places.
7. Highest turnout group: Older, wealthier, more educated voters.
8. Midterms vs. presidential: Midterms have lower, older, whiter turnout.
9. 2020 turnout: 66.8% (highest since 1900) due to polarized electorate.
10. Voting Rights Act (1965): Banned Jim Crow laws (poll taxes, literacy tests). Still tested on AP!