Intro to Project Management: Agile Project Management - Relative Estimation Planning, Poker Story Points

What This Is

Relative Estimation is a technique used in project planning to estimate the effort required to complete tasks or user stories. It's a collaborative approach that helps teams avoid individual biases and arrive at more accurate estimates. Imagine a software development team planning to launch a new mobile app. They use Relative Estimation to estimate the effort required for each feature, ensuring that the overall project timeline and budget are realistic.

Key Terms & Formulas

• Relative Estimation: A technique to estimate effort using a scale (e.g., Story Points) rather than hours or days.
• Planning Poker: A game-like approach to Relative Estimation, where team members simultaneously reveal their estimates.
• Story Points: A unit of measurement for estimating effort, often used in Agile projects.
• Effort Estimation: The process of estimating the time required to complete a task or activity.
• Triangular Distribution: A probability distribution used to model uncertainty in effort estimation.
• Pareto Analysis: A technique to identify the most critical tasks or features that contribute to the overall effort.
• 80/20 Rule: A principle stating that 80% of the effort is often concentrated in 20% of the tasks or features.
• Effort Multiplier: A factor used to adjust the estimated effort based on the team's velocity or productivity.
• Velocity: A measure of the team's productivity or speed in completing tasks or user stories.
• Effort Variance: The difference between the estimated and actual effort required to complete a task or activity.
• Earned Value (EV) = % complete × BAC (Earned Value = percent complete times Budget at Completion)
• Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV / AC (Cost Performance Index = Earned Value / Actual Cost)

Step-by-Step / Process Flow

1. Identify tasks or user stories: Break down the project into smaller, manageable tasks or user stories.
2. Estimate effort: Use Relative Estimation techniques (e.g., Planning Poker, Story Points) to estimate the effort required for each task or user story.
3. Analyze effort distribution: Use Pareto Analysis to identify the most critical tasks or features that contribute to the overall effort.
4. Adjust effort estimates: Apply the 80/20 Rule and Effort Multiplier to adjust the estimated effort based on the team's velocity or productivity.
5. Monitor and control: Regularly review and update the effort estimates to ensure the project stays on track.

Common Mistakes

• Mistake: Failing to account for uncertainty in effort estimation.
• Correction: Use a Triangular Distribution to model uncertainty and adjust the estimated effort accordingly.
• Mistake: Not considering the team's velocity or productivity when estimating effort.
• Correction: Use the Effort Multiplier to adjust the estimated effort based on the team's velocity or productivity.
• Mistake: Not regularly reviewing and updating effort estimates.
• Correction: Regularly review and update effort estimates to ensure the project stays on track.

Exam Tips

• Watch out for trick questions: Questions that ask you to choose between different estimation techniques or methods.
• Understand the context: Make sure you understand the project context and the specific estimation technique being used.
• Focus on the process: Emphasize the process of estimation rather than the specific numbers or values.

Quick Practice Questions

1. If the CPI is 0.8, is the project under or over budget? Answer: Under budget. Explanation: A CPI of 0.8 indicates that the project is earning value at a rate that is 80% of the actual cost.
2. A team uses Planning Poker to estimate the effort required for a task. The estimates range from 5 to 15 Story Points. What is the average estimate? Answer: 10 Story Points. Explanation: The average estimate is the midpoint of the range, which is (5 + 15) / 2 = 10.
3. A project has a BAC of $100,000 and an EV of $80,000. What is the CPI? Answer: 0.8. Explanation: CPI = EV / AC = $80,000 / $100,000 = 0.8.

Last-Minute Cram Sheet

• Relative Estimation: A technique to estimate effort using a scale (e.g., Story Points).
• Planning Poker: A game-like approach to Relative Estimation.
• Story Points: A unit of measurement for estimating effort.
• Effort Estimation: The process of estimating the time required to complete a task or activity.
• Triangular Distribution: A probability distribution used to model uncertainty in effort estimation.
• Pareto Analysis: A technique to identify the most critical tasks or features that contribute to the overall effort.
• 80/20 Rule: A principle stating that 80% of the effort is often concentrated in 20% of the tasks or features.
• Effort Multiplier: A factor used to adjust the estimated effort based on the team's velocity or productivity.
• Velocity: A measure of the team's productivity or speed in completing tasks or user stories.
• Effort Variance: The difference between the estimated and actual effort required to complete a task or activity.
• Earned Value (EV) = % complete × BAC (Earned Value = percent complete times Budget at Completion)
• Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV / AC (Cost Performance Index = Earned Value / Actual Cost)
• Don't confuse Effort Estimation with Time Estimation: Effort Estimation is about estimating the time required to complete a task, while Time Estimation is about estimating the duration of a task.
• Be aware of the 80/20 Rule: It's essential to identify the most critical tasks or features that contribute to the overall effort.
• Use the Effort Multiplier: Adjust the estimated effort based on the team's velocity or productivity to ensure accurate estimates.