UPSC Mains Answer: Discuss the political developments in Maldives in the last two years. Should they be of any cause of concern to India ?

Difficulty Level: Hard

Pre-requisite: Foundational knowledge of India-Maldives relations post-2018, including the Solih government’s pro-India stance, the 2023 presidential election, and China’s expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean Region under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Sub-category: International Relations (Neighborhood Policy)

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The Maldives, a strategically located Indian Ocean archipelago, has witnessed significant political turbulence in the last two years, raising concerns for India’s regional interests.
Introduction: The political landscape in the Maldives has been marked by instability, authoritarian shifts, and geopolitical realignments. These developments hold implications for India’s security, maritime influence, and neighborhood policy.
Body: 1. Democratic Backsliding (2021-2023): The presidency of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (2018-2023) saw efforts to restore democracy, but the election of Mohamed Muizzu in 2023 signaled a return to pro-China policies. Muizzu’s administration has weakened democratic institutions, suppressed dissent, and aligned closely with Beijing, undermining India’s traditional influence.
2. India-Out Campaign: Muizzu’s nationalist rhetoric, including the expulsion of Indian military personnel and termination of hydrological survey agreements, reflects a deliberate pivot away from New Delhi. This shift threatens India’s strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
3. China’s Growing Footprint: The Maldives’ participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), coupled with increased Chinese investments in infrastructure, poses a challenge to India’s regional dominance. The leasing of islands to China for military purposes exacerbates security concerns.
4. Maritime Security: The Maldives’ location along critical Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) makes its political orientation vital for India’s naval strategy. Instability or anti-India posturing could disrupt maritime trade and security.
Conclusion: India must adopt a calibrated approach, balancing diplomatic engagement with assertive measures to safeguard its interests. Strengthening ties with like-minded democracies and leveraging economic leverage can mitigate the risks posed by Maldives’ political trajectory.